Canada’s help for U.S. strikes towards Iran might include safety dangers as Iran appears to retaliate towards perceived enemies overseas, say specialists, who additionally be aware the political gamble of betting on an assault with unsure goals and outcomes.
On Saturday, Prime Minister Mark Carney stated the federal government backs American army motion to cease Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon and “forestall its regime from additional threatening worldwide peace and safety.”
Beneath Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei, Iran has a historical past of lashing out towards Western international locations by way of cyberattacks on crucial infrastructure, on-line harassment and assassination makes an attempt.
“We needs to be involved,” stated Thomas Juneau, assistant professor on the College of Ottawa’s college of public and worldwide affairs.
He pointed to “transnational repression — focusing on of Iranian-Canadian dissidents, human rights or democratic activists.”
“It might attempt to try this much more within the coming weeks and months just because it’s so weak and it’ll wish to goal anti-regime activism overseas.”
Now in an existential combat, the regime has “nothing to lose” and will be anticipated to indicate little restraint each at residence and overseas, he stated.
The USA and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran in a serious assault on Saturday, as U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to decimate the nation’s army, destroy its nuclear program and spur a change in authorities.
Iran retaliated by firing ballistic missiles towards Israel and U.S. bases within the area, the place the specter of a broader battle now looms.
Israel for many years has pointed to the Iranian regime as the principle supply of threats to its safety, and the Carney authorities has echoed the view that militant teams similar to Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi rebels all threaten Israel with Iranian help.
In 2024, the federal authorities listed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — a “praetorian guard” army power that swears fealty to the ayatollah — as a terrorist entity below the Prison Code.
In cities throughout Iran, protests erupted in late December as Iranians expressed anger over the rising value of dwelling and water and electrical energy shortages. The rallies escalated into mass demonstrations calling publicly for Khamenei’s resignation.
In response to the demonstrations, the regime killed 1000’s and detained tens of 1000’s extra.
As movies displaying the brutal repression unfold all over the world, Iran reduce off entry to the web and most overseas cellphone communication.
Analysts have had cut up opinions on whether or not regime change is feasible and if there’s a viable political power that would take the nation alongside a path to peaceable democracy.
That unpredictability additionally carries political dangers for many who again the hassle, together with Canada.
“What surprises me probably the most about Carney’s assertion is the truth that he did take this moderately definitive stance in help of a army motion whose goals appear fluid and unsure, and whose penalties could possibly be grave,” stated Stephanie Carvin, who teaches worldwide relations and safety points at Carleton College.
“You don’t need to help the Iranian regime to see the dangers and hazard of this specific motion.”
Carney has dominated out any Canadian army involvement.
The implications in areas starting from worldwide safety to grease costs and commerce flows will grow to be clearer within the coming weeks, stated Sajjan Gohel, worldwide safety director on the Asia Pacific Basis.
“We’ve seen that regime change within the final 30 years doesn’t actually work very properly. Whether or not we’ve tried it in Afghanistan or in Iraq, it doesn’t fairly develop the way in which maybe individuals had envisaged,” he stated.
This report by The Canadian Press was first revealed Feb. 28, 2026.
— With information from Dylan Robertson in Ottawa
Christopher Reynolds, The Canadian Press