OTTAWA — With Canada’s inhabitants development now primarily flat, the nation could possibly be heading towards an unprecedented scenario the place inhabitants development is pushed solely by immigration, one professional says.
Based mostly on the federal authorities’s newest Immigration Ranges Plan, the parliamentary price range officer tasks 2026 can be Canada’s second consecutive yr of zero inhabitants development.
Canada noticed fast inhabitants development because it emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. That development, which was pushed nearly solely by immigration, peaked at 3.1 per cent in 2023 — excessive above the historic common of 1.1 per cent going again to 1972.
Statistics Canada knowledge reveals the inhabitants grew by 816,000 short-term and everlasting immigrants in 2024, whereas pure inhabitants development — births over deaths — got here to roughly 34,000 folks.
Dan Hiebert, a College of British Columbia geography professor who research human migration, mentioned Canada is dealing with a “unprecedented” way forward for inhabitants development set by authorities coverage.
“Pure improve in Canada goes to hit zero actually quickly. Possibly 2029, possibly 2030, give or take, proper? And at that time, all inhabitants development goes to be immigration-related, like 100 per cent,” he mentioned.
“It signifies that wherever the federal government of Canada, and specifically (Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada), wherever it units that immigration quantity at, that’s the quantity the inhabitants goes to develop. In order that’s traditionally unprecedented.”
A 2024 authorities report on the way forward for Canada’s immigration system says newcomers are anticipated to account for all the nation’s inhabitants development by 2032.
Immigration has lengthy been a driver of Canada’s inhabitants development and has been constantly the highest contributor to development because the starting of the millennium. About 148,000 immigrants arrived in 2000, whereas pure development that yr got here to about 110,000 folks.
The hole between pure inhabitants will increase and development because of immigration has solely widened over the previous 25 years.
The said objective of the newest authorities ranges plan is to scale back the variety of folks coming to Canada — particularly short-term immigrants, together with college students — to ease stress on the housing market and different areas strained by fast inhabitants development.
Rachel Battaglia, a Royal Financial institution of Canada economist, mentioned the financial institution forecasts rents will proceed softening this yr after the fast will increase within the years instantly following the pandemic.
Leases.ca, a website that tracks common rental charges throughout Canada, says that whereas the typical nationwide hire declined in February for the sixteenth consecutive month, the speed of that decline is slowing.
Battaglia mentioned the impact of slower inhabitants development on the housing market is double-edged — decreased demand can result in decrease housing prices whereas additionally weakening the market incentive to construct extra models.
“Fewer inflows of newcomers means decreased demand for housing, particularly in markets just like the GTA, the place a big share of Canada’s worldwide migrants do are inclined to settle upon arrival. Even with decrease charges and worth cuts, affordability continues to be in a really completely different state relative to pre-pandemic,” Battaglia mentioned.
Whereas RBC is projecting a softening housing market throughout the nation, Battaglia mentioned affordability challenges are compounded by current declines in shopper confidence and a gradual labour market.
The variety of youthful immigrants coming to Canada after the pandemic had a measurable impact on demographics. Canada’s median age noticed slight reductions from 2022 to 2024, dropping from 41 years to 40.3 years.
Final yr noticed the primary median age improve in three years — as much as 40.6 years — because of a shrinking non-permanent resident inhabitants.
“So now that influx of newcomers, who once more are youthful on common than the Canadian-born inhabitants, now that influx is slowing we’ve seen that development revert, which suggests we will’t depend on new employees to handle our labour market challenges as closely we did in recent times,” Battaglia mentioned.
“It’s one thing that received’t be as out there to us shifting ahead as an alternative. I believe we’re going to should focus extra so on growing the participation charge among the many present inhabitants and enhancing productiveness.”
Hiebert mentioned, due to the mixture of a declining birthrate and longer life expectations, he expects Canada’s “previous age dependency ratio” to develop. That ratio refers back to the variety of folks above retirement age in comparison with the working age inhabitants, often described as folks aged 18 to 64.
“The upper that ratio, the harder it’s going to be to have the financial system perform correctly. And in addition, particularly, to have authorities perform correctly,” Hiebert mentioned.
“As soon as folks retire, they nonetheless draw on social companies. And actually, the draw on social companies truly turns into larger over time merely due to the added well being care prices … and on the identical time they’re placing in much less tax income, as a result of they aren’t working.”
Hiebert mentioned Canada’s previous age dependency ratio, or OADR, is at present round 29.5 folks aged 65 and older for each 100 working age folks.
He has used a Statistics Canada mannequin to mission how the OADR would possibly change underneath completely different long-term immigration situations.
The parliamentary price range officer’s report on the Immigration Ranges Plan predicts medium time period inhabitants development at 0.8 per cent yearly.
Hiebert’s modelling suggests this is able to lead to an OADR of about 50 retirees for each 100 folks within the working inhabitants 50 years from now.
He mentioned with immigration now on observe to change into Canada’s sole inhabitants driver, the federal government ought to undertake longer-term planning past the three-year window within the Immigration Ranges Plan.
“So we’re racing towards the long run with out truly considering of the place we’re racing towards,” he mentioned. “We don’t know what the end line seems to be like. We simply know what this little leg of the race is wanting like.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first revealed Mar 4. 2026.
David Baxter, The Canadian Press