The Quebec Liberal Celebration has erased the Parti Québécois’ as soon as sizable lead and now sits nearly tied with its rival, based on a brand new Léger survey carried out for Le Journal and TVA.
The ballot exhibits the PQ at 31 per cent help, simply forward of the Liberals at 30 per cent. In December, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and his occasion loved an 18-point benefit over the Liberals.
The shift comes as Charles Milliard settles into his function as Liberal chief, serving to the occasion regain floor after earlier setbacks. A quick surge following the arrival of Pablo Rodriguez light amid controversy, however current numbers recommend renewed momentum for the federalist occasion.
The Coalition Avenir Québec isn’t benefiting from the present local weather of financial uncertainty and has, for the primary time, fallen behind the Conservatives.
Regardless of the tightening race total, the PQ maintains a powerful foothold in francophone ridings, the place it captures 39 per cent of supposed votes. The Liberals have improved amongst francophone voters as effectively, reaching 19 per cent in that key citizens forward of the October election.
With outcomes at these ranges, the PQ would stay positioned to win probably the most seats, although the prospect of forming a majority authorities seems much less sure.
Help for independence weakens
Backing for Quebec sovereignty has dropped to its lowest level for the reason that 1995 referendum. Solely 29 per cent of respondents mentioned they might vote in favour of independence if a referendum have been held now, whereas 71 per cent would vote towards it.
The polling interval started the day earlier than U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, including to world instability that features the election of Donald Trump, the imposition of tariffs and the continuing struggle in Ukraine.
Fréchette widens lead in CAQ race
Throughout the CAQ, Christine Fréchette has expanded her benefit within the occasion’s management contest. 70 per cent of CAQ supporters think about her your best option to guide, in contrast with 20 per cent for Bernard Drainville.
Earlier this 12 months, Fréchette had helped push the occasion into second place in polling. The most recent outcomes, nevertheless, present the CAQ trailing each the Liberals and the PQ, with Fréchette now behind Milliard total and tied with Conservative Chief Éric Duhaime.
The net survey was carried out from Feb. 27 to March 2, 2026, amongst 1,041 respondents aged 18 and over throughout Quebec. The info have been weighted to mirror the province’s inhabitants. A chance pattern of this measurement would have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.04 share factors, 19 instances out of 20.