The parliamentary finances officer predicts Canada’s price of inhabitants progress will stay flat in 2026, primarily attributable to cuts to non-permanent resident admissions within the newest federal Immigration Ranges Plan.
This might be the second 12 months in a row with zero inhabitants progress in Canada, which follows a number of years of above-average progress years, together with two report breaking years in 2022 and 2023.
Statistics Canada reported flat progress in 2025, with the PBO report discovering any positive aspects in inhabitants had been offset by a decline within the non-permanent resident inhabitants of 382,000 individuals.
It mentioned inhabitants progress averaged 1.1. per cent yearly between 1972 and 2015, earlier than it started to see better will increase pushed primarily by immigration.
Progress hit a brand new report in 2022, when Canada’s inhabitants grew by multiple million individuals for the primary time in a single 12 months. It exceeded that marker once more in 2023, when annual inhabitants progress peaked at 3.1 per cent.
Statistics Canada information reveals immigration-driven inhabitants progress in 2023 of 1.2 million individuals, with a mix of everlasting and non-permanent arrivals.
The PBO evaluation of annual immigration targets initiatives the federal government will hit its aim of decreasing the inhabitants share of non-permanent residents from a peak of seven.6 per cent in October 2024 to lower than 5 per cent by the tip of 2027 — one 12 months later than initially deliberate.
The federal immigration plan features a dramatic reduce to the variety of new momentary work and scholar visas, from virtually 674,000 in 2025 to 385,000 this 12 months.
The plan units a goal of 380,000 everlasting resident admissions yearly between 2026 and 2028, with two one-time packages to fast-track everlasting residency for 148,000 non-permanent residents over the subsequent two years.
These one-time packages are targeted on dashing up entry to everlasting residency for eligible individuals and a few momentary employees.
The 2026 ranges plan says a type of packages is supposed for as much as 115,000 people who cannot return to their dwelling nations and are already on observe for everlasting residency.
The opposite program appears to speed up everlasting residency standing for as much as 33,000 momentary employees who’ve put down “robust roots” and are employed in jobs that assist to construct the economic system, says the degrees plan.
The PBO predicts these one-time packages will play a major function in decreasing the variety of non-permanent residents in Canada to lower than 5 per cent of the inhabitants by the tip of 2027.
The PBO report says whereas these two packages are along with the broader 380,000 individual everlasting resident goal, the outflow of non-permanent residents is anticipated to offset inhabitants progress.
The PBO predicts the non-permanent resident inhabitants will decline by 385,000 this 12 months, and by a further 289,000 individuals in 2027.
The report notes about 80 per cent of this decline is anticipated to contain work allow holders leaving the nation. The remaining decline projection relies on a mix of some scholar visa holders leaving and other people turning into everlasting residents.
The PBO report initiatives that Canada’s inhabitants will develop by 0.3 per cent in 2027 earlier than stabilizing at round 0.8 per cent yearly within the medium time period.
This report by The Canadian Press was first revealed Feb. 26, 2026.